BCA call
중국은 여전히 "경기부진"
increased by 580 bln, nearly half the expected amount. Total social financing rose by 2.3 tln instead of the expected 2.7 tln. Finally, M2 growth slowed to 7.1% y/y from 7.5% in October.
The absence of credit growth acceleration bodes ill for China’s outlook following recent stimulus attempts. While volatile, growth in new CNY loans stands at close to -50% y/y. It is increasingly clear that China’s policy mix is not stimulative, as recent data have shown.
Growth is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate as long as real lending rates remain elevated, private sector confidence is depressed, and local governments remain wary of spending.
China’s role in the global economy motivates our defensive asset allocation, and absolute-return investors should avoid China plays for now. Prospective risk-adjusted returns on Chinese equities are poor, and the CNY will keep depreciating until US-China trade talks emerge
t.me/jkc123
중국은 여전히 "경기부진"
increased by 580 bln, nearly half the expected amount. Total social financing rose by 2.3 tln instead of the expected 2.7 tln. Finally, M2 growth slowed to 7.1% y/y from 7.5% in October.
The absence of credit growth acceleration bodes ill for China’s outlook following recent stimulus attempts. While volatile, growth in new CNY loans stands at close to -50% y/y. It is increasingly clear that China’s policy mix is not stimulative, as recent data have shown.
Growth is unlikely to meaningfully accelerate as long as real lending rates remain elevated, private sector confidence is depressed, and local governments remain wary of spending.
China’s role in the global economy motivates our defensive asset allocation, and absolute-return investors should avoid China plays for now. Prospective risk-adjusted returns on Chinese equities are poor, and the CNY will keep depreciating until US-China trade talks emerge
t.me/jkc123