方志恒 Brian C.H. Fong - Channel


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政治學者,用論述和行動革新保港
Political scholar, reforming and defending Hong Kong through discourse and action

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黃金經濟圈呢個概念提出以嚟,主要都係講支持黃店、罷買藍店。但係好多人都講過,黃藍店要分類,存在住各種問題;以運動方式操作,亦唔容易持久。

我近期一路諗,黃金經濟圈最根本嘅價值,應該係一種「經濟自主」嘅概念,即係支持和擴大本土企業,香港人能夠自主經濟,先有更大力量自主政治。要做到呢個願景,本土企業家就要建立互助網絡,團結抵抗政治壓力之餘,互相引薦同路人做供應商、客戶和伙伴,甚至合力南向東進開拓新巿場,先至有可能逐步建立一個自立自主嘅經濟體系。

HKBASE好可能係全香港唯一嘅非建制商會,所以我哋一班兄弟姊妹決定,全速籌備「和你薦:黃金經濟圈 商務引薦平台」,以推動形成一個黃金企業家社群。千里之行,始於足下,以香港人嘅智慧、拚搏和財富,我哋絕對有能力形成一個「以香港為基地、以世界為腹地」嘅企業家社群,為香港自立自強開彊闢土!

#黃金經濟圈 #黃金企業家 #黃色經濟圈 #黃店 #黃企 #YellowEconomy #香港人生意 #香港人引薦 #永續經濟 #香港自強 #香港人加油 #願榮光歸香港

https://www.facebook.com/hkbase.org/photos/a.1936190566692294/2338897179754962


【#香港研究】今年嘅 #香港研究周年會議,將會移師到教大將軍澳教學中心舉行,設施方面坦白講確係一般,但考慮過交通等唔同因素,呢個係冇辦法中嘅辦法。兩星期前,我決定繼續舉行會議,因為在動盪之時,更需要緊持研究。會議第二天特設一場對談「逃犯條倒爭議的跨學科觀點」,希望各位香港研究學者一齊嚟參加。
This year the “Hong Kong Studies Annual Conference” will be moved to EdUHK Tseung Kwan O Study Centre. To be frank the facilities there are not that good, but this decision was made having regard to different factors including uncertain transport situations. Two weeks ago, I decided to hold the annual conference as planned because we should not give up research even in times of turbulence. In Day 2 we will have a panel on “Multi-disciplinary perspectives on Extradition Bill saga”, Hong Kong Studies scholars please come and join us.

▌網上報名 Registration:https://qrgo.page.link/EfoWs

#香港研究 #香港研究學院 #香港研究在世界 #HongKongStudies #WorldingHongKongStudies


【#新聞點評】區議會並無實權,今次選舉結果最大影響,在2022特首選委會組成。先回顧一點歷史。2012年,李嘉誠公開票投唐英年,唐在醜聞下仍奪285票,北京力挺下梁振英只得689票僅僅過半當選;2017年,民主派與代表本地資本的自由黨結盟發起ABC運動,阻止梁振英連任,北京為保控制權,遂勸退梁改派林鄭月娥上陣,結果與本地資本關係緊密的曾俊華被棄保,林鄭奪777票當選。

今次區選大勝,民主派除原來在專業和社會服務界別的300票外,可望再取117張區議會票,令其在1200人的選委會票數增至400多。新格局下,本地資本的槓桿地位更強。假如本地資本與民主派結盟,隨時有足夠票數自行決定特首人選;北京要避免出現這種「政變」,恐怕只能重新統戰本地資本,重回董曾時期京港政商聯盟,試圖在內外交困下穩住局勢。短期就看林鄭會否被快速撤換,由與本地資本關係緊密的權貴例如唐英年、陳德霖取代。

北京與本地代理人的關係從來複雜,香港仍是中共無法完全控制的境外地區。

▋延伸閱讀
「反送中」是一場香港自治運動/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2BSYfOv

#區議會選舉 #特首選舉 #特首選委會


【#新聞點評Viewpoint】參議院通過,待完成兩院法案整合後,《香港人權與民主法案》就會正式落實—參眾兩院全體通過,總統不能否決。國際戰線焦點,將由「推動法案通過」,轉為「推動法案執行」。美國將由香港自治上的「被動否決者」(阻止23條、逃犯條例和解放軍鎮壓),轉為「積極持份者」(以年檢和官員制裁為槓桿),香港將步向中美共治(進度視乎白宮對港政策)。
Passed by the Senate, the Hong Kong Human Rights & Democracy Act will be enacted upon reconciling procedures—President can't veto an Act passed by full House and Senate. The focus of international front will be moved from “passing the Act” to “implementing the Act”. The role of US in Hong Kong's autonomy will be changed from a “passive veto player” (resisting Article 23, Extradition Bill and PLS's crackdown) to an “active stakeholder” (leveraging annual certification and sanctions), Hong Kong is moving toward US-China co-governance (the pace of which will depend on White House's Hong Kong policy).

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
香港在中美新冷戰:自由世界前哨?紅色中國前哨?/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2K5XGHn
Hong Kong and the US-China New Cold War/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/2HMt7El

#中美共治 #國際共治 #港美關係 #中美新冷戰 #香港政策法 #香港人權與民主法案
#HongKongHumanRightsandDemocracyAct #HKHRDA


【#傳媒訪問MediaInterview】法國《世界報》專訪。我再分析中國的三個選項,即解放軍鎮壓、警察政權、讓步。中國的困局,在既不能承受解放軍鎮壓所引發的金融動盪、但又不願意作出讓步,故選擇不斷升級警察政權,試圖以最低成本瓦解流水革命。這是警暴肆虐的底因。
Interview with French newspaper Le Monde. I re-examined the three options that China can take, i.e. PLA's crack down, police-state and concession. The impasse facing China is that it can't bear the financial shocks of PLA's crack down nor it is willing to make any concession. So it chooses to escalate police-state's suppression, trying to put down the Water Revolution with least cost. This is the reason behind extensive police brutality.

📖 訪問Interview:https://bit.ly/2ptEHOg

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
「反送中」是一場香港自治運動/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2BSYfOv
The Future of Hong Kong’s Autonomy/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/31VUBxV

#反送中 #流水革命 #五大訴求缺一不可
#NoExtradition #WaterRevolution #5DemandsNot1Less #China #HongKong


【#TimePerson時代風雲人物】票投香港抗爭者,登記電郵再投票,10秒搞掂,真正願榮光歸香港。
Please vote for Hong Kong protesters. Just spend 10 seconds to register by email and then vote, bringing glory to Hong Kong.

🗳 http://time.com/person-of-the-year-poll-2019

#撐香港 #香港人加油 #香港人反抗 #香港人 #香港共同體
#StandWithHK #StandWithHongKong #Vote4HK #Hongkonger #HKNation

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【#新聞點評Viewpoint】嚴格來說,香港不是「新柏林」,而是一直都是「柏林」。冷戰時期,歐洲有鐵幕,分隔開北約和華約;亞洲也有竹幕,分隔開各共產政權和自由國家,而香港就是竹幕邊緣的飛地,早有「東方柏林」之稱。文革後,中國和西方維持了近40年的友好接觸,淡化了香港作為共產政權和自由世界共同邊陲的地位。今天,新冷戰重臨,香港不過重作馮婦,再做一次地緣政治衝突的最前線。
Strictly speaking, Hong Kong is not “new Berlin”, because it has always been “Berlin”. During the Cold War, the Iron Curtain separated the NATO and Warsaw camps in Europe; while the Bamboo Curtain demarcated Communist states and Free World in Asia, with Hong Kong situated along the Bamboo Curtain as an enclave and labelled as “Berlin of the East”. After Cultural Revolution, China and the West maintained about 40 years of friendly engagements, overshadowing the position of Hong Kong as an overlapping periphery between Communist states and Free World. Now with a rising New Cold War, Hong Kong has been returned to its original role as a geopolitical forefront.

📖 新聞News:https://bit.ly/2WXrxVM

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
「反送中」是一場香港自治運動/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2BSYfOv
The Future of Hong Kong’s Autonomy/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/31VUBx


【#悼周同學】我們同悲同泣,因為我們是共同體
We share the same sorrow, because we are one people.

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
Stateless nation within a nationless state: The political past, present, and future of Hongkongers, 1949–2019/Brian C. H. Fong
https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12556

#周梓樂 #香港人 #香港共同體
#ChowTszLok #StandWithHongKong #StandWithHK #Hongkonger #RIP

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【#閱讀筆記ReadingNotes】美國國務院發表《印太報告》,開宗名義以「專制強權」為假想敵。今年初,美駐港總領事唐偉康首度將香港納入印太戰略,今次報告亦有一段重申「香港自治」之重要性。香港自治之未來,繫於香港人、中國和自由世界的三方互動;而美國如何推動印太戰略,以及香港在當中有何角色,將是重要變項。

US Department of State issued a report on “Indo-Pacific strategy”, highlighting “Authoritarian revisionist powers” as its opposing forces. Earlier this year, the outgoing US consul-general in Hong Kong, Kurt Tong, firstly put Hong Kong within the Indo-Pacific strategy; This report also reiterated the importance of Hong Kong’s autonomy in the Indo-Pacific region. The future of Hong Kong’s autonomy hinges on the three-way interaction between Hongkongers, China and the Free World; How will the US push forward the Indo-Pacific strategy and how Hong Kong will be positioned within it will be important variables.

📖 報告全文 Full report:https://bit.ly/34EvGkq

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
「反送中」是一場香港自治運動/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2BSYfOv
The Future of Hong Kong’s Autonomy/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/31VUBxV


【#OpEd評論】霸了《台灣蘋果日報》全版。寫作是思考過程,這篇文章是流水革命5個月來的思考結晶。

▋中文版:「反送中」是一場香港自治運動/方志恒(《 台灣蘋果日報》)
https://bit.ly/2BSYfOv
▋英文版: The Future of Hong Kong’s Autonomy/Brian C. H. Fong(The Diplomat Magazine)
https://bit.ly/31VUBxV

#香港前途 #香港自治 #香港人 #香港共同體 #新冷戰
#HKFuture #HongKongAutonomy #Hongkonger #HKNation #NewColdWar

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https://tw.news.appledaily.com/forum/20191030/RD33SMSX7Q5UU6IPJZHZ7FRE4M/?fbclid=IwAR37_4MiB_cKq0OJe0Kzry4DWisfuMeGxnSR1ZcccPw89IrxKScGI_68y8g

【#OpEd評論】《外交家雜誌》文章的中文版來了。近年很少寫評論,所以一係唔寫,一寫就索性寫幾千字中英文一齊出。要感謝《台灣蘋果日報》,願意刊登五千字的長文。希望文章可以令香港人明白,我們所身處的地緣政治格局,再思考未來行動,而這一段特別重要。願榮光歸香港。

/香港是地緣政治上的共同邊陲(overlapping periphery),其自治狀況始終受制於大國政治,特別是中美兩國。但香港人作為細小的共同體,如果能團結地、也有智慧地爭取,則仍然有能力影響地緣政治格局 —— 香港人在過去幾個月,就成功做到這一點。

未來,香港人會否鞏固其主體意識,克服來自中國的分化打擊?香港人會否將抗爭更聚焦於中國及其代理人網絡,直接打擊其控制香港之實力和資源?香港人又會否強化其全球民間外交網絡,鞏固自由世界國家對香港的支持?所有這些變數,都會影響未來香港自治運動之動員能力,繼而決定香港人能否在中美新冷戰中發揮「弱者槓桿」(leverages of the weak) 。

對無國家共同體來說,自治之路必然是崎嶇漫長,過程總是數以十年甚至百年計。但若然香港人決心尋求自治,就必須昂首迎接這個沉重挑戰。《想像的共同體》作者安德森曾寄語,「我走不下去了,但我會走下去」(I can’t go on. I’ll go on.),這應該是香港人在未來漫漫長路上的座右銘。/

#香港自治 #國際自治政體 #香港人 #香港共同體 #新冷戰

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https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/the-future-of-hong-kongs-autonomy

【#OpEd評論】In this long article published in Diplomat, I examine Hong Kong's autonomy within a framework of three-way interaction between Hongkongers, China and the Free World. Hong Kong’s autonomy will always be structured by big powers particularly China and the U.S.; But Hongkongers as a stateless nation can still influence the geopolitical game, if we can fight in unity and with wisdom. The Chinese version will be published by Taiwan Apple Daily in due course.
我在《外交家雜誌》的最新評論,將香港自治之未來,放置在香港人、中國和自由世界的三方互動框架中分析。香港自治受制於大國政治,特別是中美兩國;但香港人作為無國家共同體,如果能團結地、也有智慧地爭取,仍有能力影響地緣政治格局。中文版稍後在《台灣蘋果日報》刊登。

#香港前途 #香港自治 #香港人 #香港共同體 #新冷戰
#HKFuture #HongKongAutonomy #Hongkonger #HKNation #NewColdWar

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https://www.ft.com/content/e28718de-f59a-11e9-bbe1-4db3476c5ff0?fbclid=IwAR3D86ri9vC44PwALqrEb13JLyuWcPoiNn1_a_MvRttwSnidXMPQWvMqAZI

【#懶人包ForDummies】**Please scroll down for English version**
不厭其煩,要講到所有人都明。中港權貴總是吹噓「香港依靠中國才能生存」,但事實上卻是「中國經濟依靠香港金融才能生存」。多年來,北京以為可以一手盡用香港為其服務、一手扼殺香港自治,現在終於踢到了鐵板。攬炒之道,就是北京要麼放手讓香港自治,在一國兩制下中港互利;要麼承受失去香港金融中心,中國經濟資金鏈斷裂之風險。

• 香港是中國最主要的境外投資來源地
(2018年香港對中國的直接投資金額為961億美元,佔中國 FDI 總數74.7%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外上巿集資地
(現時合共有1,146 間國企、紅籌、民企在香港主板巿場上巿;2018年中國企業在香港的IPO金額高達35萬億美元,佔中國企業境外集資總額79.6%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外銀行貸款來源地
(2018 年香港各銀行對中國大陸銀行和非銀行客戶的淨債權總額高達 910億元美元)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外債券融資平台
(2018年中國企業在香港發行的美元債券總額高達723 億美元,佔中資企業境外發債總額的64.2%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外人民幣交易中心
(2018 年香港佔全球人民幣境外交易量的79%)
• 香港是中國最主要的境外私人財富安全港
(2018年香港各金融機構管理的資產總額達3.1萬億美元,估計大部分為中國權貴的資產)

I will repeat this post until everybody understands it. Despite of the usual claims that “Hong Kong is depending on China to survive” as advanced by many Chinese and Hong Kong elites, in reality “China heavily depends on Hong Kong’s international financial centre status to survive”. For many years, Beijing has tried to make best use of Hong Kong to serve its agenda on one hand, while chipping away at Hong Kong’s autonomy on the other hand, now it finally hits the wall. “Burn with us” means Beijing can either give Hong Kong's autonomy, so that OCTS is good for both China and Hong Kong; or Beijing can lose Hong Kong as an international financial centre, risking itself to face the breakdown of its capital chain.

• Hong Kong is China’s largest source of inward direct investment
(the total amount of FDI contributed by Hong Kong in 2018 was USD 96.1 billion, constituting 74.7% of China’s total FDI in 2018)
• Hong Kong is China’s major offshore equity financing place
(a total of 1,146 H-shares, Red-chips and Mainland private enterprises have been listed in Hong Kong’s main board; the total amount of IPO raised by Chinese companies in Hong Kong reached USD35 trillion in 2018, constituting 79.6% of the total offshore IPO funds raised)
• Hong Kong is China’s most important source of offshore bank loans
(the total amount of Hong Kong banks’ net claims on bank and nonbank customers in China exceeded about USD91 billion in 2018)
• Hong Kong is China’s overriding offshore platform for corporate bond financing
(the total amount of US bonds issued by Chinese companies in Hong Kong exceeded USD72.3 billion in 2018, representing 64.2% of the total amount of US bonds issued by Chinese companies in all offshore financial centres)
• Hong Kong is China’s largest offshore RMB clearing centre
(79% of the world’s RMB payments were settled through Hong Kong in 2018)
• Hong Kong is China’s its offshore safe heaven for hiding private assets
(it is estimated that a total of USD3.1 trillion was managed by Hong Kong’s financial firms in 2018, the majority of which are seen as private assets of Chinese elites)

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
香港在中美新冷戰:自由世界前哨?紅色中國前哨?/方志恒
https://bit.ly/2K5XGHn
Hong Kong and the US-China New Cold War/Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/2HMt7El

▋資料來源 Information sources
FDI: http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tongjiziliao/v/
Equity: https://www.hkex.com.hk/…/HKEx-…/2019/CCEO_MPE_201906_e.pdf…
Loans: https://www.hkma.gov.hk/…/…/annual-report/2018/18_Annex.pdf…
Bonds: https://www.hkex.com.hk/…/HKEx-…/2019/CCEO_MPE_201906_e.pdf…
RMB: https://www.swift.com/…/business-intel…/renminbi/rmb-tracker
Assets: https://www.sfc.hk/…/Asset%20and%20Wealth%20Management%20Ac…

#攬炒 #香港自治 #香港金融 #中國經濟 #一國兩制
#BurnWithUs #HKAutonomy #HKFinance #ChinaEconomy #OCTS

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https://globalvoices.org/2019/10/22/hongkongers-a-young-stateless-nation-striving-for-democratic-autonomy

【#傳媒訪問MediaInterview】早前為加泰雜誌《El Temps》所做的訪問,被翻譯成英文再在《Global Voices》中刊登。訪問以一問一答形式,解釋香港人的身份認同、語言文化、民主自治訴求等等,希望能令更多外國朋友認識香港。
Received an interview with Catalan news magazine El Temps, now the scripts have been translated into English and published in Global Voices. Adopting a Q&A format, I explained in this interview Hongkongers' identity, language and autonomist demands. Hope it helps foreigners know more about Hong Kong.

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
Stateless nation within a nationless state: The political past, present, and future of Hongkongers, 1949–2019/Brian C. H. Fong
https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12556

#香港自治 #國際自治政體 #香港人 #香港共同體
#HKAutonomy #HongKongAutonomy #InternationalizedAutonomy #Hongkonger

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https://books.google.com.hk/books?id=pGClDAAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&hl=zh-TW&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false

【#閱讀筆記ReadingNotes】香港流水革命強調民間外交,也得到最多的國際支持;在情在理,香港人也應聲援其他共同體。當下除了香港人和加泰人在抗爭,其實庫爾德人和克什米爾人也在奮戰之中。我們實在太需要補課,認識一下在世界各地,同樣在爭取自治自主的無國家共同體。加泰學者占士.米納漢之著作《無國家共同體百科全書》,收錄了包括香港人在內全球420個無國家共同體,是當下必讀之作。
Hongkongers, Catalans, Kurds and Kashmiris are all stateless nations. Coincidentally, today they are all fighting for their own survival; Hongkongers should know more and support other stateless nations. Authored by Catalan scholar James Minahan, the “Encyclopedia of Stateless Nations” gives a brief summation of 420 stateless nations around the world including Hongkongers and it is a timely must-read.

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
Stateless nation within a nationless state: The political past, present, and future of Hongkongers, 1949–2019/Brian C. H. Fong
https://doi.org/10.1111/nana.12556

#香港人 #加泰人 #庫爾德人 #克什米爾人 #共同體
#Hongkonger #Catalans #Kurds #Kashmiris #Statelessnation

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https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03068374.2019.1672397

【#香港研究HKStudies】前皇家警官Martin Purbrick在《亞洲事務》發表研究文章,探討香港流水革命的因由,並重點分析由於失去民眾支持,警察的準軍事體制將無法平息示威。這應該是首篇有關香港流水革命的學術文章,值得一讀。
Former Royal Hong Kong Police officer Martin Purbrick has published a research paper in Asian Affairs, examining the causes of Hong Kong's Water Revolution. The article looks at the paramilitary internal security mode of the police, arguing that without the support of the majority of the community such a paramilitary mode is ineffective to address the protests. It should be the first academic paper on Water Revolution, worth reading.

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2019.1672397
Abstract:This article is written by a former Royal Hong Kong Police officer whose service included Special Branch engaged in counter-terrorism intelligence, and who is currently resident in Hong Kong. It offers a detailed chronological overview of the development of the 2019 protests in Hong Kong; analyses the problems with the political response on the part of the Hong Kong and Beijing governments; it also looks at the tactics employed by the protesters, and critically examines the tactical and strategic response to the protests by the Hong Kong police. It also discusses the broader social and economic causes of the protests, and how the Hong Kong government might best respond to these challenges

#香港研究 #香港研究學院 #香港研究在世界 #HongKongStudies #WorldingHongKongStudies

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【#圖看天下】北京不能動用解放軍血腥屠殺(基於對香港國際金融中心的依賴),又不願意作出讓步(答應五大訴求等同放棄對香港的全面控制),唯一方法是不斷加強警察政權的鎮壓力度,並配合分化抹黑恐嚇等手段,試圖逐步瓦解整場運動。

但流水革命從一開始就強調「不分化不割蓆」的原則,和勇同行令運動得以持續超過4個月;最新的中大民調顯示,民意依然站穩在示威者一邊。

假如流水革命能保持民意支持,加上來自美國的制裁壓力,北京最終被迫作出讓步的可能性不少。

圖片來源:明報

#反送中 #流水革命 #五大訴求缺一不可
#撐香港 #香港人加油 #香港人反抗

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https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/were-not-exporting-our-values-to-china-were-importing-theirs

【#閱讀筆記ReadingNotes】2000年,美國總統克林頓為中國入世護航時說:「入世不能確保中國會選擇政改,但經濟發展會迫使中國更早面對這個選擇」。二十年後,美國不但未能令中國走向「民主資本主義」,卻反過來受到中國「專制資本主義」的衝擊;而香港,就正在這場鬥爭的最前線。《國家評論雜誌》資深政治記者格拉帝這篇評論,由中國入世的緣由,談到香港流水革命和NBA風波,道盡了這場歷時廿載至今未完的「民主資本主義與專制資本主義之爭」,值得一讀。
In 2000, US President Bill Clinton defended his decision to support China's accession to WTO by arguing that “bringing China into the W.T.O. doesn’t guarantee that it will choose political reform. But the process of economic change will force China to confront that choice sooner”. 20 years later, the US not only fails to move China toward “democratic capitalism”, it also faces serious challenges from Chinese “authoritarian capitalism”; Hong Kong is exactly at the forefront of this struggle. In this article, National Review senior corespondent Jim Geraghty wrote from China's accession to WTO to Hong Kong Water Revolution and NBA saga, clearly outlining the “struggles between democratic capitalism and authoritarian capitalism” over the decades. Worth reading.

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
Hong Kong is at the forefront of China’s influences/Brian C. H. Fong
https://goo.gl/d8mh8S

#中國影響力 #中國崛起 #新冷戰 #流水革命
#ChinaInfluence #ChinaRise #NewColdWar #WaterRevolution #NBA

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